NAR Home Sale Data Doubts

Posted on February 24, 2011 by Tom Kennedy

Housing Zone magazine mentions Wall Street Journal observation that NAR may be off on counts of home sales since as far back as 2007.   I’m thinking to myself either: 1) “Say it ain’t so!” or 2) “Just what does that mean?” or 3) “Who cares?”   . . . . article follows:

 

Differing home sale estimates cause doubts on severity of housing crisis
By Kate Cline, Housing Zone contributing editor  -  February 22, 2011

The National Association of Realtors (NAR), which releases monthly reports on the sales of previously-owned homes, may have over-counted home sales as far back as 2007, according to a report by theWall Street Journal.

According to NAR, 4.9 million homes were sold in 2010, down from 5.2 million sales in 2009. CoreLogic, a real estate analytics firm, estimated that 3.3 million homes were sold in 2010, compared to 3.7 million in 2009, however.

NAR currently is reviewing the numbers and its estimating methodology. According to NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun, there could be a number of reasons for the variance in estimates. The consolidation of multiple listing services, and a higher or lower percentage of homes for sale “by owner” both could have an effect on the numbers.

Normally, NAR revises the number of homes sold at the end of each decade using census data. The 2010 census did not include any questions about home sales, however.

According to the report, a downward revision in home sales could affect the real estate market, but will likely not affect the economy as a whole, which relies more on new home construction for growth.

 

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Affordability Conditions are too compelling

Posted on January 26, 2011 by Tom Kennedy
Baseline Real Estate Outlook – Summary
At the “NARdigras” gathering of the National Association of Realtors in New Orleans in November 2010, Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Sr. VP and Chief Economist suggested that the  . . .

“Affordability conditions are too compelling”
The basis for his suggestion is, essentially, a mixture of the following pertinent points:
  • Home Values Stable – no meaningful change in national price in next 2 years; (1% price increase in 2011; 2% in 2012; 3% in 2013; 4% in 2014 according to Macromedia)
  • Mortgage Rates Bottomed Out – will rise to 5% in 2011 and 5.9% in 2012; “people fussing about home values could miss out on low rates”)
  • Declining Home Inventory – 10 months supply down from 12 months supply mid 2010
  • Existing Home Prices Now Substantially Lower Than Construction Cost for Building the Same Home – advantageous time for Realtors (and existing home sellers and buyers) in this sector
  • Improving Home Sales – in line with job growth; 5.2 million in 2011 (up from 4.8 million in 2010, but same as 2000)
  • Potential Pent Up Demand – 30 million additional people in 2011 vs. 2000 but the same # of home sales as in 2000
  • Business Profits Back to 2006 Level – Business spending still low meaning an eventual release of this spending will a big impact on the economy
I can’t help but THINK THE OBVIOUS  -  the stars are beginning to align  . . .   things just have to improve ! ! What do you think?
There’s no time like the present . . .   let’s go buy some real estate ! ! !
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6 item Checklist before Buying a House

Posted on December 27, 2010 by Tom Kennedy

Reader’s Digest version of 6 must-do’s before buying a house:

  1. strengthen your credit score
  2. determine capacity to afford
  3. save for down payment and closing costs
  4. build a healthy savings account
  5. get mortgage pre-approved
  6. buy a house you like

Contented from Money Matters 12-26-10 stltoday.com…….. Who knew?

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Robinwood West – a 13 year "History of SOLDS"

Posted on December 17, 2010 by Tom Kennedy
Robinwood West is a 50 year old West St. Louis County subdivision of well built homes of modest market value in a great location in Parkway North schools nestled between Olive Blvd and Fee Fee Road where Ross Ave and Merrick Drive intersect within 20 minutes of just about everywhere in the entire St. Louis and St. Charles area.
I’d like to look back year-by-year at the entire 50 year “History of SOLDS” in the neighborhood because I think it would be very interesting. However, I just went back 13 years to 1-1-’98. Here’s the facts:

Looks like 12, the number of houses SOLD in the neighborhood thus far in 2010 (it’s almost over!), is about 5 sales less in 2010 than the 13yr average.

And, while the average of 94 Days on the Market (DOM) in 2010 was almost a month more than the 13yr average, compared to ’07, ’08, and ’09, can the neighborhood begin to celebrate a positive downward trend in the number of days a house for sale in Robinwood West stays on the market?  For those trying to sell now and in 2011, let’s all hope so.  But, truth to tell, tom thinks it’s still “wait and see” for a HAPPY NEW YEAR in “dom” regard.

Some good news is that, when priced right, 2010 sellers in Robinwood West actually received between about   94% to 97% of their asking price as reflected in the %Sales Price to Listing Price ratios in the above spreadsheet and graphic.  In tom’s view, that’s an EXCELLENT SALES TO LISTING PRICE RATIO in any neighborhood anywhere and anytime.  Maybe, just maybe, a positive uptick in 2010 over the previous 3 years before, can bode well in 2011 for a sustaining of this ratio.  The trick is to “price right” from the git-go.

Finally, Robinwood West’s Median, High, and Average Sales Prices in 2010 did fairly well, in tom’s view, compared to the 13yr average and even considering some of the “good old days” years reflected in the overall “run-up” of housing prices between 2001 and 2006.  The Low Sales Prices didn’t fair so well.  Looking carefully, they were as low in 2010 as they were 10 to 12 years ago.

The good news in this regard, in tom’s view, is that there are plenty of properties in Robinwood West in the “fixer-upper” category that represent a excellent opportunity for smart buyers, renovators, and rehabbers. From this angle, tom is very hopeful that 2011 and beyond will bring REAL IMPROVEMENTS IN ROBINWOOD WEST  - – - goodness knows, like everywhere, it’s really needed.

One final note in a qualifying, disclaiming, and hand-washing sense  -  All of the above facts and observations do not take into consideration or effect houses that were bought and/or sold outside of the St. Louis’ Multiple Listing Service (MLS) – for example, For Sale By Owner properties and the probable dampening effect of neighborhood properties in FORECLOSURE. The properties selling in the Low Sale Price range may or may not have been properties in the SHORT SALE category and even if they were, they were most likely in the “fixer-upper” category.           Whew!  That’s enuf for now. Don’t you think? ……. more in the future ……..


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